Mark My Words, Again

I ran across a story in the news today about cars that can drive themselves. As loyal reader of my blog will attest, I am obsessed with this idea:

Driverless Cars

A couple of interesting points: First, GM is trying to design a car that will be compatible with existing roads -- and existing, human-controlled traffic. Second, the time-frame is within the next eight years. Both of these assumptions are way, way beyond anything I would dare predict. I still think it will take 10 years before most people accept the fact that this will happen someday. It will be ten years after that before we see driverless cars on the roads.

Given that this is being researched by a leading innovator like GM, we can expect millions to be wasted on concept cars that never reach the roads. On the plus side, they might thrash around and get Honda or Toyota interested.

The picture above is of my Grandmother Cage, my Dad, and his younger brother and sister. The car in the background is, in my opinion, one of the best looking automobiles in human history.

Mark My Words

The third DARPA Challenge was this weekend. Three years ago, the Defence Department gave a $1 million prize, a challenge to anyone who could build a robotic car that could navigate 160 miles through the desert -- with no driver, no remote control, no "wires in the road" -- just on-board computing power and on-board sensors.

That year (2004), no vehicle made it more than five (5) miles.

The next year (2005), five vehicles made it through the complex course, at average speeds over 45 miles per hour.

Then DARPA offered about $2 million in prizes, but moved the contest to a simulated urban environment. Stop signs. Other vehicles. Simulated pedestrians.

This year (2007), three vehicles made it through under the time limit, and eight more made it through without incident. That's right -- almost no crashes or problems at all. The cars were so successful, that observers found it boring to watch. The cost of all of this research to the American taxpayer? About $3 million. And keep in mind that this was WITHOUT any supervisory computer control, which would make the system faster, more efficient, and safer.

I've been saying this for years, but let me get on the record again. No, we won't have fully robotic cars on our streets in 10 years. But in 10 years, most people will agree that robotic cars are coming. Ten years after that, automated vehicles will be on the roads somewhere in the world. Ten years after THAT, most vehicles in the developed world will be automated. If there are vehicles (outside of theme parks) that humans can drive, there will be so many computer-controlled safety features as to make the human's actions more like suggestions than actual commands.

And I can't wait. The idea of putting a 17-year-old in charge of 2000 lbs of metal, tearing down highways and back roads at 80 miles per hour, scares the crap out of me. But we will live to see a time when that's a thing of the past.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/robot_cars_dc;_ylt=Aj8cZ5Ud7EYxW1V37sDjRqIjtBAF